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Modelling Physical Risks

flowchart LR
    A[Wealth Data] --> D
    B[Natural Hazards Simulations] --> D
    D[Economic Impacts] --> E[Financial Impacts]
Figure 1: Key elements for modelling financial losses related to physical hazards.

1. Modules

Sectoral wealth distributions

Description

We estimate sectoral densities using Climate Trace data on physical assets for a range of sectors in the following industries:

  • Agriculture
  • Fossil fuel operations
  • Manufacturing
  • Mineral extraction
  • Power
  • Transportation
Methodology

A weighted kernel estimation (based on capacity, or an equivalent metric) is used to generate the densities at a country level. The densities generated can serve as a basis to estimate sector-specific damages caused by physical hazard such as tropical cyclones.

Products
  • sectoral wealth densities at the national level based on open data
Download/Access (Codebase and data)

Github repository API (Access required)

Support

Please contact the Pladifes team for any further details.

Acute Physical Risks

1. Tropical Cyclones

Description

The CATHERINA algorithm is a cyclone generation model that includes a thermodynamic module and is compatible with data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) climate models.

Methodology

This section is based on the work presented in this article published in the Geoscientific Model Developpement and on a collaboration with the primary author, Dr. Théo Le Guenedal currently lead Prospective research at the Innovation Lab of Amundi Technology.

Products
  • An end-to-end pipeline written in Python to assess historical and forward-looking damages at different levels (global, national, sectoral, asset-level)
  • Distributions of intensified cyclone tracks based on specific climate scenarios for tailored analyses
  • Exposure indicators aggregated at coarser resolutions (county, state...)
Download/Access (Codebase and data)
  • Codebase: available on gitlab
  • National and sectoral future damages (Access on demand)

Visualise our data Sample of the dataset API (Access required)

Data can be accessed for academic projects for free, and publications derived from its use are required to cite the following: 

"Research work realised thanks to the Pladifes EquipEx (ANR-21-ESRE-0036), hosted at the Institut Louis Bachelier, and based on LE GUENEDAL et al. (2021)."
Support

For any further information, feel free to reach out to Dr. LE GUENEDAL and Hamada SALEH directly.

2. Floods

Description

Available soon!

Methodology
Products
Download/Access
Support

For any further information, please reach out to Hamada SALEH directly.